I've been looking at this one too splitt. I always like to look at the run game. NMS has a good run game with 4.3 ypr. LA Laf. gives up 5.4 ypr! They won't be able to contain the rush and that means NMS will control the line of scrimmage.
UL Laf. doesn't run well either, they are mostly a passing team. NMS has a respectable pass defense giving up an average of 186 yds./game.
LA Laf did come close to Houston, losing 21-14. But Houston had 5 turnovers in that game and still won.
Thanks for bringing that game up and good luck!